There have been a few recent claims that Hurricane Sandy, which has ravaged the East Coast of the US this week, is a consequence of climate change. The most notorious of these claims, though not surprising, has been Al Gore. The news media have reported this widely here, and here for example. However, a close and cold look at Gore’s claims shows that his position is unsubstantiated by evidence. If Sandy has been caused by climate change, then Gore’s arguments do not serve as an explanation for it. Here a few key passages from his statement:
As the oceans and atmosphere continue to warm, storms are becoming more energetic and powerful. Hurricane Sandy, and the Nashville flood, were reminders of just that. Other climate-related catastrophes around the world have carried the same message to hundreds of millions.
Sandy was also affected by other symptoms of the climate crisis. As the hurricane approached the East Coast, it gathered strength from abnormally warm coastal waters. At the same time, Sandy’s storm surge was worsened by a century of sea level rise. Scientists tell us that if we do not reduce our emissions, these problems will only grow worse.
Well, there is some historical evidence that suggests otherwise. Roger Pielke Jr. has a few posts on his blog and graphs, that normalize the storm damage and compare storms in the last century. You can see his full posts here, here and here. And the graphs below:
|STORM NAME||LANDFALL DATE||DAMAGE RANK||DAMAGE ($ 2012)|
|Great Miami||Sep 18,1926||1||180,220,000,000|
|Storm 11 in 1944||Oct 19,1944||6||53,940,000,000|
|New England||Sep 21,1938||8||46,840,000,000|
|Lake Okeechobee||Sep 16,1928||9||44,890,000,000|
|Storm 2 in 1949||Aug 26,1949||20||18,510,000,000|
While it will be some time until we have apples to apples estimates from Sandy, the current estimates of $20 billion would place Sandy at #17 all time out of 242 loss-producng storms 1900 to present (in the top 10%). If the damage gets to $30 billion it would crack the top 10 and (top 5%). Right now it seems unlikely that Sandy will climb any higher on the table. (Note that inland flood damage is not included in the tabulations above.)